Emergent Universe: Randomness as the Foundation of Reality


Randomness is the only true reality, from which physical laws, the universe, and everything within it emerge, is a radical yet compelling framework for understanding existence. The essence of reality is not order or deterministic rules, but a seething sea of chaotic possibilities, bubbling up from the quantum foam. It is from this primordial randomness that the intricate tapestry of the universe, along with the laws that govern it, accidentally coalesces. This idea is articulated through modern physics, exploring how it is supported while addressing the challenges and contradictions it faces.

The Quantum Foam: A Foundation of Randomness

In physics, the concept of quantum foam describes the structure of spacetime at the smallest possible scales, on the order of the Planck length. At this scale, spacetime is not smooth or continuous, but rather turbulent and frothy, dominated by incessant quantum fluctuations. These fluctuations are inherently random, and their effects could be anything—including creating a Big Bang, perhaps with different values for the fundamental physical constants. Virtual particles—ephemeral pairs of matter and antimatter—flicker in and out of existence due to these fluctuations. They are governed by the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, which dictates that certain pairs of properties, such as position and momentum, cannot be simultaneously known to arbitrary precision.

This principle implies that on the smallest scales, the universe is fundamentally random. There is no way to predict exactly when and where these fluctuations will occur, or what forms they will take. Randomness is the most fundamental property of reality, partly because it represents the highest entropy state. Everything else, including physical laws, is an emergent consequence of this chaotic foundation.

Physical Laws as Emergent Properties of Randomness

In classical physics, physical laws are seen as fundamental truths that govern the behavior of matter and energy. These laws are not fundamental at all. Instead, they might be the statistical regularities that emerge from the chaotic fluctuations of the quantum foam. This idea is analogous to flipping coins: while each individual flip is random, certain patterns—such as a thousand heads in a row after a trillion flips—become apparent when considering a large enough sample. These patterns are not imposed from the outside; they are intrinsic to the process of flipping.

The laws of physics emerge from the random interactions of quantum fields. In this view, every particle, every force, and every interaction is a manifestation of randomness, stabilized over immense scales of space and time. The constants of nature, such as the speed of light or the strength of the fundamental forces, could be seen as "fixed points" that have arisen purely by chance. In other words, the universe as we know it is the outcome of an incredibly improbable, yet inevitable, arrangement of random fluctuations—like seeing a hundred heads in a row after a trillion coin flips.

The Birth of the Universe from Randomness

Randomness underlies the universe, aligning with certain cosmological models. The Hartle-Hawking no-boundary proposal suggests that the universe could have spontaneously arisen from a quantum fluctuation in a state where time and space had no boundaries. If the quantum foam is a primordial sea of potentialities, then the Big Bang might be just one of countless bubbles of order emerging from it. This bubble expanded, inflated, and cooled, giving rise to spacetime, matter, and energy as we perceive them.

The inflationary model of the early universe provides further support for this view. During inflation, tiny quantum fluctuations were exponentially stretched to macroscopic scales, seeding the formation of galaxies and large-scale structures. These fluctuations were random, yet they laid the groundwork for all subsequent cosmic evolution. In this context, the vast and structured universe we observe today can be understood as the fossilized imprint of primordial randomness, amplified and sculpted by subsequent physical processes.

Statistical Regularities and the Appearance of Order

If randomness is truly fundamental, the question arises of how the universe exhibits such regularity and predictability. The answer lies in the concept of statistical mechanics, which shows that macroscopic order can emerge from microscopic chaos. In thermodynamics, for example, the behavior of gases is described by laws like the ideal gas law, even though individual gas molecules move randomly. These macroscopic laws are not imposed from above; they are statistical regularities that arise naturally from the random motions of countless particles.

In a similar vein, the laws of physics might be viewed as large-scale statistical patterns that emerge from the underlying randomness of quantum fluctuations. Over time and across vast expanses of space, certain stable configurations and relationships dominate, giving the appearance of fixed, deterministic laws. But these laws are merely effective descriptions—emergent properties that capture the collective behavior of innumerable random events.

Addressing the Challenges and Contradictions

While this hypothesis is consistent with many aspects of modern physics, it also encounters significant challenges. The universe, as we know it, began as a singularity, where the fundamental physical laws were set at the moment of instantiation. These laws remain consistent across the universe due to underlying self-organizing principles. The concept of self-organized criticality explains how systems naturally evolve toward critical states, where minor fluctuations can lead to large-scale order. This self-organizing behavior accounts for the larger, consistent observations we make, making the universality of physical laws an inevitable outcome.

Another challenge is the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics in describing physical phenomena. Despite reality being fundamentally random, mathematics, a construct of human thought, precisely captures the workings of the universe due to its intrinsic connection to emergent patterns. One possible explanation is that mathematical structures are not just human inventions but are intrinsic to the patterns that emerge from randomness. Mathematics might be the language that best expresses these emergent patterns, allowing us to model and predict their behavior.

Most importantly, the idea that randomness is the only reality lacks falsifiability, a key criterion for scientific theories. Since randomness can produce any possible outcome given enough time, no observation or experiment could definitively prove or disprove it. This renders the hypothesis more of a metaphysical or quasi-religious idea rather than a scientific one. It is a framework for interpreting reality rather than a theory that can be tested and refined through empirical inquiry.

Reconciling Randomness and Determinism

Despite these challenges, randomness as the foundation of reality has profound implications. It suggests that determinism, as we perceive it, is an illusion that arises from the averaging out of countless random events. This perspective reconciles the apparent contradiction between the indeterminism of quantum mechanics and the determinism of classical physics. At the quantum level, randomness reigns supreme, but at larger scales, the cumulative effect of countless random events gives rise to stable, deterministic laws.

A Philosophical Perspective Grounded in Physics

Randomness as the only true reality, from which physical laws and the universe itself emerge, offers a radical reinterpretation of existence. It is an attempt to explain how order and structure can arise from the most fundamental chaos. While this idea is consistent with many concepts in modern physics—such as quantum fluctuations, the inflationary model, and statistical mechanics—it faces a significant challenge in terms of scientific validation.

Ultimately, this is not a falsifiable scientific theory but a philosophical framework that invites reconsideration of the nature of reality. It satisfies the principle of the least hypothesis by reducing all of existence to a single underlying property: randomness. Yet, it also acknowledges that this randomness gives rise to emergent properties that we interpret as physical laws, structure, and meaning. In this sense, it is a quasi-religious idea, not in the sense of invoking supernatural entities, but in offering a fundamental, unprovable claim about the nature of existence.

By embracing randomness as the foundation of reality, we are left with a vision of the universe where every pattern, every law, and every conscious being is the product of a grand cosmic lottery—a rare alignment of chaotic fluctuations that, through sheer chance, have resulted in the world as we perceive it. This perspective challenges us to find meaning not in deterministic laws or divine order, but in the beautiful improbability of our own existence.


Note: This essay started as an experiment with the new ChatGPT Canvas interface. It is also the first thing I've co-written with GPT that I do not feel needs a primary attribution as an AI product. The Canvas interface allowed me to very closely guide the construction of the work. While GPT wrote the actual words, I spent an hour in dialog to elucidate the facts and develop the argument. Another hour closely editing and rewriting with the Canvas interface. I feel comfortable in calling this essay my own with GPT relegated to the role of some combination of a word processor with super powers and an insanely knowledgeable friend.


re: Olivia Nuzzi and RFK (yuck)

Dear Everybody,


The Olivia Nuzzi RFK sex cult is only a big deal in the smallest sense of the word. Her continuing to report on RFK while banging him is BAD, full stop. Also, who cares? She came clean and has been removed from her post. Add an asterisk to her previous reportage and call the job done.


That leaves two other questions.


First, should she get the death penalty? The answer is, Jesus people, have you never been young and stupid? She was all flushed up with those awesome dead bear orgasms in hotels on her expense account and wanted to level up to whale's head mind blown frenzy. She did a bad thing in which no lives were lost, no old ladies we bilked of their life savings and the republic was not destroyed. I think a year or two of management side-eye, along with all her friends looking at her and thinking "ew" is adequate penance.


The second is, should we still be talking about this? The answer is, Don't you have doors to knock on? Campaign phone banks to attend? Donations to give? Isn't there an interesting new way you could be spending your time making sure your local election staff is going to let Democrats vote? To still prioritize this after, what's it been, a week is stalker obsessive, imho.


Look people. The story should be known (spoiler, we do know fer christs sakes) and Nuzzi should be sanctioned (she has). But this is inside-baseball level of 'who cares'. The only reason to still be talking about it would be if she was a right-wing scumbag and we could use this as a cynical excuse to ruin her life. 


As it is, she is a Democrat who screwed up. A young woman who let her, uh, enthusiasms get ahold of her judgement. Sure, it was RFK but, tell me that none of your sexual escapades involved assholes or that you never carried a guilty secret longer than you should have.


I would prefer not to hear about it anymore if you don't mind. It's not that I think it's "no big". It's just not, "keep harping on it forever big".  I would be much happier if everyone spent their anti-Nuzzi energy on pro-Kamala things.

Harris Trump Idea Analysis

My brother spent a happy hour with GPT and the debate transcript trying to find out what they actually said. He concludes, "I felt like trump fell back to “millions of criminals” ten times. In my mind trump mad five erroneous points with heavy weighting on insanity, and Harris made 8-10 points, most of which were reasonable."

(One point below is edited because it was opposite of what was said.)

Enjoy...

GPT: Here is a more detailed and neutral list of every idea or assertion made by each candidate, grouped by candidate and including the number of times each assertion was made:


Vice President Kamala Harris:


1. The economy is focused on helping the middle class and working families (2 times).

2. The administration has extended a $6,000 child tax credit to help young families with expenses (1 time).

3. Small businesses will receive a $50,000 tax deduction under her administration (1 time).

4. Trump’s economic policies favor billionaires and large corporations (3 times).

5. Trump’s economic policies would increase the deficit by trillions of dollars (2 times).

6. Economists and experts support her economic plan while criticizing Trump’s (2 times).

7. Trump left the worst unemployment crisis since the Great Depression (1 time).

8. Trump left the worst public health crisis in a century (1 time).

9. Trump’s administration left the worst attack on democracy since the Civil War (1 time).

10. Project 2025 is a dangerous plan that Trump will implement if elected (2 times).

11. The administration needs to focus on uniting the country rather than dividing it (2 times).

12. Trump’s tariffs have resulted in trade deficits and didn’t benefit the U.S. economy (2 times).

13. Housing affordability is a major issue that her policies address (1 time).

14. Survivors of rape and incest should have the right to decide about their bodies (2 times).

15. Trump’s abortion policies make it criminal for doctors and nurses to provide care (2 times).

16. She will reinstate the protections of Roe v. Wade if Congress passes a bill (2 times).

17. Women should not be denied medical care for miscarriages due to fear of prosecution (1 time).

18. Trump’s administration thanked President Xi of China during COVID (1 time).

19. The current administration is prosecuting criminal organizations at the border (1 time).

20. Trump called for the killing of an immigration bill that would have provided resources to combat fentanyl (2 times).

21. People leave Trump’s rallies early because they are exhausted and bored (1 time).

22. Republican leaders have endorsed her, including former Vice President Dick Cheney and others (1 time).

23. Trump has contempt for the Constitution and is unfit for office, according to his former staff (2 times).

24. Trump incited the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol (2 times).

25. Trump praised the Proud Boys and extremists in Charlottesville (2 times).

26. The majority of Americans support a woman’s right to choose (2 times).

27. Trump changed his positions on abortion multiple times (1 time).

28. She has met with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine five times to support Ukraine (1 time).

29. The Biden administration has brought together 50 countries to support Ukraine (1 time).

30. The Biden administration’s support has enabled Ukraine to remain independent (1 time).

31. Putin would be in Kyiv if Trump were president (1 time).

32. The U.S. must continue to support Ukraine to prevent Russia from moving further into Europe (2 times).

33. The U.S. must uphold international rules and norms in foreign policy (2 times).

34. Trump negotiated a weak deal with the Taliban and invited them to Camp David (2 times).

35. The administration has ended the U.S. military’s combat involvement in war zones for the first time in this century (1 time).

36. Trump’s deal with the Taliban involved the release of 5,000 terrorists (2 times).

37. Trump’s admiration for dictators like Putin and Kim Jong-un weakens the U.S. position internationally (3 times).

38. Trump is wrong and weak on national security and foreign policy (2 times).

39. Trump’s attempts to undermine the 2020 election results threaten democracy (2 times).

40. Military leaders have said Trump is a disgrace and unfit to lead (2 times).

41. The Biden administration has invested in increasing domestic oil production (1 time).

42. She supports diverse energy sources to reduce reliance on foreign oil (1 time).

43. IVF treatments are being denied to couples under Trump’s abortion policies (1 time).

44. Fracking has not been banned under her administration (2 times).

45. The Inflation Reduction Act has opened new leases for fracking (1 time).

46. Trump’s claims about millions of people eating pets are extreme and false (1 time).


Former President Donald Trump:


1. Trump does not have a national sales tax; Harris’s claims about this are false (2 times).

2. Tariffs on foreign countries benefit the U.S. by making other nations pay back their debts (3 times).

3. Trump’s tariffs have brought in billions of dollars, particularly from China (2 times).

4. Inflation under the Biden-Harris administration is the worst in U.S. history (2 times).

5. Trump’s administration had virtually no inflation during his term (2 times).

6. Millions of criminals, including people from prisons and mental institutions, are entering the U.S. under the Biden-Harris administration (3 times).

7. Migrants are taking jobs from African Americans, Hispanics, and union workers (2 times).

8. Some migrants are criminals and are taking over towns violently (2 times).

9. Trump claims migrants in Springfield, Ohio, are eating people’s pets (2 times).

10. Trump claims that middle-class Americans were hurt by inflation and rising prices under Biden (2 times).

11. Trump built the greatest economy in U.S. history and will do it again (2 times).

12. Harris has no detailed plan for the economy and is copying Biden’s weak policies (2 times).

13. Harris and Biden’s immigration policies are destroying the country (3 times).

14. Trump supports exceptions for abortion in cases of rape, incest, and life of the mother (2 times).

15. They are killing babies after they are born.

16. Trump’s policies returned the abortion issue to the states where it belongs (2 times).

17. Harris’s accusations about a national abortion ban are lies (2 times).

18. Trump claims Democrats support abortion in the ninth month and even execution after birth (1 time).

19. Trump’s administration was strong on foreign policy, and Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump were president (2 times).

20. Trump would end the Ukraine-Russia war in 24 hours through negotiations (3 times).

21. Harris and Biden have weakened the U.S. position internationally, emboldening adversaries (3 times).

22. Iran has gained wealth and influence under the Biden administration and is supporting terrorist groups (2 times).

23. Harris has no plan for handling foreign policy effectively (2 times).

24. Trump denies responsibility for the January 6 Capitol attack, blaming Pelosi and the D.C. mayor for not securing the Capitol (2 times).

25. The election was rigged, and Trump did not lose in 2020 (3 times).

26. Trump’s legal cases are politically motivated, and he will win on appeal (2 times).

27. Trump’s energy policies kept gas prices low, and the Biden administration reversed them (2 times).

28. Fracking and fossil fuels are vital to the economy, and Harris would destroy the industry (2 times).

29. Trump negotiated a deal with the Taliban but blames Biden for the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal (2 times).

30. Trump claims he fired many top officials for incompetence during his presidency (2 times).

31. Harris is the worst vice president in U.S. history (2 times).

32. Trump claims that Viktor Orban, the Hungarian leader, respects and supports him (1 time).

33. World leaders and adversaries respected Trump but are emboldened under Biden (2 times).

34. Harris and Biden are pushing the country toward World War III with weak foreign policy (2 times).

35. Harris hates Israel and the country would not survive under her leadership (2 times).

36. Trump’s administration ended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline while Biden allowed it to continue (2 times).

37. Trump believes the U.S. should prioritize stopping the Ukraine war rather than focusing on who wins (1 time).

38. Trump has strong relationships with both Zelenskyy and Putin and would use those connections to end the war (1 time).

39. Harris’s involvement in negotiations before the Ukraine war was weak and led to the invasion (1 time).

40. Harris’s foreign policy approach would lead to the destruction of Israel and chaos in the Middle East (2 times).

41. Trump claims he was the first president to get NATO countries to pay their fair share (1 time).


This list includes all the assertions and ideas mentioned by each candidate, regardless of whether they represent political positions, and the number of times each assertion was made during the debate.

Debunking Wage Average Meme Panel

Using GPT and IRS data from 2021, I evaluated the accuracy of a meme panel. The bottom line is that the meme panel captures the spirit of income inequality but substantially exaggerates the numbers. 

Here is the real data:



Here is the meme panel. Notice that it deducts counts of individuals, not percentages as above. This makes the meme panel less correct.



And, here is the entire calculation:



Here is the raw data:


It came from THIS PAGE.

Trump's Declared Policies 2024 and Their Consequences (spoiler: Bad)

With help from my favorite AI, I extracted specifics from this article by David French. If the people of America could somehow understand what this monster has planned, he would be run out of town on a rail.

You Want Policies? Trump’s Got Policies.

"Donald Trump’s policy initiatives for a potential second term are rife with unintended adverse consequences — which, in less charitable terms, could be described as deliberate attempts to delude the electorate."

Summary:

1. **Mass Deportation of Undocumented Immigrants**:

   - Economic disruption due to loss of labor in key industries.

     - *Example: Deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants could result in a loss of $1.6 trillion from the U.S. economy over 10 years (Peterson Institute for International Economics).*

   - Negative impact on U.S. workers' employment and wages.

     - *Example: For every one million undocumented workers deported, 88,000 U.S. native workers could lose their jobs, leading to a cumulative loss of 263,000 jobs per year (Clemens, Peterson Institute for International Economics).*

   - Reduction in consumer demand, leading to further economic decline.

     - *Example: Businesses in immigrant-heavy communities could see a drop in sales, leading to closures and a decline in local economic activity (East et al., "The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement").*

   - Social and community disruption, especially in areas with mixed-status families.

     - *Example: Deportations could lead to thousands of U.S. citizen children being placed in foster care as their undocumented parents are removed (Clemens, Peterson Institute for International Economics).*


2. **Imposition of a 10% Across-the-Board Tariff on All Imported Products**:

   - Increase in consumer prices, disproportionately affecting low-income households.

     - *Example: Tariffs could raise consumer costs by $320 for the bottom income quintile and up to $2,250 for the fourth quintile annually (Tax Policy Center).*

   - Potential for a severe global trade war, leading to further economic downturn.

     - *Example: A global trade war could result in the stock market dropping by 11.5%, wiping out $4.12 trillion in market value (Weinstein, Columbia University).*

   - Negative impact on U.S. export industries due to exchange rate effects.

     - *Example: U.S. income could be 3% lower due to the trade war, reflecting reduced competitiveness of American goods abroad (Weinstein, Columbia University).*

   - Long-term damage to global trade systems and economic efficiency.

     - *Example: The reorganization of global value chains could lead to a costly shift away from efficiency, harming long-term economic growth (Weinstein, Columbia University).*


3. **Making the 2017 Tax Cuts Permanent**:

   - Greater financial benefit to the wealthy, with minimal impact on lower-income groups.

     - *Example: Those in the top 0.1% would receive a $278,240 annual tax cut, while those in the bottom quintile would get only $130 (Tax Policy Center).*

   - Net loss for 80% of the population when combined with the effects of higher consumer prices due to tariffs.

     - *Example: A family in the bottom income quintile could face a net loss of $190 annually after accounting for a $320 increase in costs and a $130 tax cut (Tax Policy Center).*

   - Increased federal budget deficits over the next decade.

     - *Example: Trump’s tax and spending proposals could increase the federal deficit by $4.1 trillion over the next 10 years (Penn Wharton Budget Model).*


4. **Increased White House Influence Over Monetary Policy**:

   - Risk of politically motivated monetary decisions that could harm the economy.

     - *Example: Politically driven monetary policy could lead to inflation, with costs akin to those faced by Argentina, where inflation rates exceeded 50% annually during economic crises (Aaron, Brookings Institution).*

   - Potential for inflation and economic instability, drawing comparisons to historical economic crises in other countries.

     - *Example: The U.S. could experience severe economic instability, potentially resulting in double-digit inflation and high unemployment rates similar to those seen in the 1970s (Aaron, Brookings Institution).*


5. **Cutting Off Federal Funding to Schools with Vaccine or Mask Mandates**:

   - Increased risk of outbreaks of preventable diseases in schools.

     - *Example: Cutting federal funds could lead to a resurgence of diseases like measles, which had a 90% infection rate among unvaccinated individuals exposed during outbreaks (Skocpol, Harvard University).*

   - Potential public health crisis, leading to higher child mortality and disrupted education.

     - *Example: School outbreaks of preventable diseases could result in the deaths of hundreds of children and widespread school closures, disrupting education for millions (Skocpol, Harvard University).*

   - Deepening divisions within communities over public health measures.

     - *Example: Communities could become polarized, with heated conflicts over school health policies leading to social unrest and deteriorating public trust (Skocpol, Harvard University).*




We need another two million illegal immigrants each year to keep our society healthy.

Someone replied to my appreciation of Kamala with disparaging comments about "millions of illegal aliens". Even at first blush, this is this simply silly. There are only around 500k net illegal immigrants, coming and going, each year. But more importantly, we *want* lots and lots more immigrants and, in my view, the illegal ones are the best kind.

This analysis by the Wharton School (link below) shows why. The problem is that Americans are not reproducing enough to support us in the future. You can read it if you want but the bottom line is the ratio of old people to young people will go bad. Then we will not have enough young people working to keep the entire society operational.

Since immigrants are overwhelmingly young people, Wharton goes on to calculate how many immigrants we need to restore the ratio of young to old to the correct value (they explain how they figure out 'correct'). The report has many details but the bottom line is:

Immigration quotas need to increase by a factor of 3.5. Presently, the quote is around a million people per year. They calculate that we need 3.5 MILLION IMMIGRANTS PER YEAR.

The second part of this story is my opinion alone. Legal immigration favors people who can afford a plane ticket. That is, relatively rich people. In my experience, relatively rich people are lazy and feckless. They do not tend to value hard work, contribution to society and the importance of mutual reliance in community.

On the other hand, people who are willing to risk everything by taking a dangerous and arduous journey that includes a terrifying hike through a desert, show the kind of grit, energy, courage and determination that I think America needs more than anything.

America was built by immigrants but by immigrants that more closely resembled today's illegal kind that the legal ones. To get here in 1900 meant a horrible journey in a disgusting ship. It meant arriving in a place with essentially no services, a ton of discrimination and being absolutely cut off from any support or comfort from home. It took enormous courage to immigrate then as it does for illegal immigrants today.

Those are the kinds of people America needs. Today we have one million rich people and only 500k poor ones coming here. We need another two million illegal immigrants each year to keep our society healthy.

https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2024/3/22/us-demographic-projections-with-and-without-immigration

The Second Amendment is as Dangerous as the First

Reason Magazine is usually wrong and it is in this case, too. People do not want "fewer rights". I don't even think they want to censor views they do not like. Much like they do not actually want to take your gun away, people see that the first and second amendment are dangerous because they enable terrible new capabilities based on modern technology.. 


Polls consistently say that guns with high capacity for murder should be banned. They don't want guns banned, they want the ability to have and use them make sense.


Nobody yet does a poll that asks if anyone should be able to tell lies to tens of millions of people a hundred times a day for free but, if they did, they would find that protecting this is where people think the first amendment goes too far.


They don't want free speech banned but they do not want society to be destroyed by billionaires able to flood the information space and corporations providing the free ability for any asshole to manipulate millions without any consequences.


High capacity guns. Free internet reach to millions. The second amendment in the lunatic view of the 'originalist' Supreme Court has led the way to an absolutist view on the first amendment that is equally dangerous.


And that doesn't even mention the 'freedom of religion' clause that has been interpreted to mean religious people get to use modern institutions and technology to force religion on the rest of us.


https://reason.com/2024/08/03/more-than-half-of-americans-think-the-first-amendment-provides-too-many-rights/

In TRUMP v. UNITED STATES, the United States loses

In the suit, TRUMP v. UNITED STATES, the Supreme Court decided against the United States. The decision (HERE) is a calamity.

Though it does not actually say the president cannot be charged with a crime, it sets a ridiculously high bar for doing so: "The President must therefore be immune from prosecution for an official act unless the Government can show that applying a criminal prohibition to that act would pose no 'dangers of intrusion on the authority and functions of the Executive Branch.'"

Since the entire purpose of a law is to 'intrude on the authority and function' of a criminal, it's almost a tautology. If the president does it, it's not a crime.

It's made worse, though, because this bunch of corrupt assholes leaves a loophole. Despite their absolute-sounding language, they say that it might be okay to interfere with a president. And they say that they will decide, based on no expressed principles, when that occurs. Would this court find a prosecution less likely to interfere with the "authority and function" of a Democratic president? Could be.

Actually, the court says that the presumption of immunity does not apply to unofficial acts. I guess that might mean that a president could, after being out of office, be charged with theft if he left a restaurant without paying. Whether that's the case, however, would also be decided by the new king-makers of the court.

And they make clear that it's very unlikely that a president is ever unofficial. They explain that talking to the public is presumed to be official. If a government official is involved, it's official. They make clear that it really would have to be theft in a restaurant and not much more.

For good measure, they also categorically exclude official acts (determined by them) as evidence of a crime. The example in the dissent is, a bribe having been received, the discussion with the government person implementing the purchased activity is official and cannot be brought into evidence.

The dissent reminds us that the Framers were explicitly clear that the president is subject to law. They saw no reason to think that the president should not do his or her job with a clear eye on what is legal or how this could reduce the effectiveness of governance.

The majority says that it is important that a president need never fear pernicious prosecution for fear of political retribution, i.e., what Trump wants to do. The dissent observes the obvious fact that every prosecution has to get past a judge and for a president, there would be grand juries, interlocutory appeals out the ass, trials, appeals, all of the structure of justice that would stand in the way of abuse.

Justice Barrett, who is showing signs of decency, concurs with the decision but disagrees with its main conclusion. She would, instead, create a premise for pretrial appeal (interlocutory judgment) to determine if charges were applicable to the president. She doesn't discuss the majority premise, "must be immune," but she disagrees with the prohibition on using evidence derived from official acts and that makes me think she might be choosing not to rock the boat in a decision where her vote is not dispositive.

Justice Sotomayor is outraged and brings us to the conclusion that I think is correct: "The President of the United States is the most powerful person in the country, and possibly the world. When he uses his official powers in any way, under the majority's reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution.

Orders the Navy's Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune.

Let the President violate the law, let him exploit the trappings of his office for personal gain, let him use his official power for evil ends. Because if he knew that he may one day face liability for breaking the law, he might not be as bold and fearless as we would like him to be. That is the majority's message today."

I dissent.


Dangers of Universal Camera Surveillance

I found this excellent analysis of The Dangers of Surveillance. 

The following AI written list of harms that could result from universal camera surveillance matches my understanding from reading the article:


  • Severe chilling effect on behavior and intellectual freedom: People would likely alter their public behavior and activities, knowing they are constantly being watched. This could stifle creativity, free expression, and the development of diverse or unconventional ideas.

  • Erosion of privacy in public spaces: Universal camera observation would effectively eliminate the concept of privacy in any public area, fundamentally changing the nature of public life and social interactions.

  • Increased potential for abuse of power: With access to comprehensive visual data on citizens' movements and activities, the government would have unprecedented power to track, profile, and potentially manipulate individuals.

  • Risk of selective enforcement and discrimination: The vast amount of visual data could be used to selectively target certain individuals or groups for law enforcement or other government actions.

  • Threat to anonymous speech and association: Universal observation would make it extremely difficult for people to engage in anonymous political or social activities, potentially undermining democratic participation.

  • Creation of a permanent, searchable record of public life: This could be used for retroactive surveillance or investigation, creating a chilling effect even for past actions.

  • Potential for data breaches or misuse: The massive database of visual information could be vulnerable to hacking, leaks, or misuse by government employees.

  • Normalization of surveillance: Ubiquitous government cameras could lead to greater acceptance of surveillance in general, potentially opening the door to even more invasive forms of monitoring.

  • Inhibition of intellectual privacy in public spaces: People might feel less free to read certain materials, have sensitive conversations, or engage in intellectual exploration in public areas.

  • Psychological impact: The constant feeling of being watched could lead to increased stress, anxiety, and self-censorship among the population.

  • Never Talk About God in Public, Part 2

    You know how I could get in trouble if I were to go up to a woman at work and start talking about how lovely her tits are? That's not because her tits aren't lovely or that I mean anything nasty. It's just that so many men have complimented women on their bodies in ways that are demeaning or threatening that most women are immediately repelled if you say something nice about their tits.

    Also, you are feeling kind of creeped out because I used the word 'tits' three times and, even though it is a perfectly fine contraction of the word 'teats', common usage has made in an uncomfortable word.

    Your Messiah (and pretty much all the religions at one time or another) is like that for a lot of people. So many people have conducted Inquisitions and witch burnings and justified taking away women's reproductive autonomy while talking about their god that it has become creepy. Even when they weren't doing violence, they were telling all of us we were going to hell, a lot.

    So, your public expressions of religion are, like the word tits, are tarred by the brush wielded by your co-religionists.

    But with religion, it has another important facet. Your assertions about the glory of God, as benign as you mean them to be, are also, intrinsically because of the very definition of 'god' an assertion that the God I worship is not real, or right, or allowable.

    You, being you, don't intend that. One reason that I don't really object to your protestations anymore is that I know you are just kind of going on about it without any real intention toward the rest of us. The problem is, just as with my perfectly kind observations about tits, that ship has sailed.

    As you said, I "already got that message from somebody else." It's been said enough that, when you bring it up, you may as well be saying it.

    Further, religious assertions are always as much an assertion that my religious assertions are wrong as they are anything else. Religious kindnesses are creepy and inappropriate because it is talking about a person's intimate feelings. Think about how you felt when I did my rap above talking about the falsity of your God. That's how everyone feels if they are paying attention when someone else proclaims a different religious belief.

    I do not want it banned, any more than I want talking about tits banned. I want it to be formally disallowed. I talk about Debbie's tits all the time, often in lurid terms (she's got great ones!). It's fine. She has given me permission. But, if I talk about some young woman's tits at work, she can sue me, not for the word, for creating a hostile workplace. In a restaurant, not for the word, but for harassment.

    I think talking about religion should be like that. I think that talking about religion should be considered to be as sensitive as talking about the virtues of a woman's body. It is my view that having to listen to religion in the workplace (I had a coworker once, don't get me started) should be grounds for hostile workplace action. I think talking to a person about religion with their active consent, should be actionable as harassment.

    I am completely enthusiastic about your desire to enjoy your religious views. I want you to go to church and, with all the people who have agreed to talk about it, go crazy. I just don't want to hear it and I think society would be much, much, much better off if we took it out of the public conversation.